Statistical Modelling of Global Tectonic Activity and some Physical Consequences of its Results
Konstantin Statnikov, Gregory Kruchenitsky
Based on the analysis of global earthquake data bank for the
last thirty years, a global tectonic activity indicator was
proposed comprising a weekly globally averaged mean
earthquake magnitude value. It was shown that 84% of
indicator variability is a harmonic oscillation with a
fundamental period of 37.2 years, twice the maximum period
in the tidal oscillation spectrum (18.6 years). From this
observation, a conclusion was drawn that parametric
resonance (PR) exists between global tectonic activity and
low-frequency tides. The conclusion was also confirmed by the
existence of the statistically significant PR response at the
second lowest tidal frequency i.e. 182.6 days. It was shown
that the global earthquake flow, with a determination factor
93%, is a sum of two Gaussian streams, nearly equally
intense, with mean values of 23 and 83 events per week and
standard deviations of 9 and 30 events per week, respectively.
The Earth periphery to ‘mean time interval between
earthquakes’ ratios in the first and the second flow modes
described above match, by the order of magnitude, the sound
velocity in the fluid (~1500 m/s) and in elastic medium (5500
m/s). Full Text
|
