Evaluating Loans Using a Combination of Data Envelopment and Neuro-Fuzzy Systems
Rashmi Malhotra, D.K. Malhotra
A business organization’s objective is to make better decisions at all levels of the firm to improve performance. Typically organizations are multi-faceted and complex systems that use uncertain information. Therefore, making quality decisions to improve organizational performance is a daunting task. Organizations use decision support systems that apply different business intelligence techniques such as statistical models, scoring models, neural networks, expert systems, neuro-fuzzy systems, case-based systems, or simply rules that have been developed through experience. Managers need a decision-making approach that is robust, competent, effective, efficient, and integrative to handle the multi-dimensional organizational entities. The decision maker deals with multiple players in an organization such as products, customers, competitors, location, geographic structure, scope, internal organization, and cultural dimension . Sound decisions include two important concepts: efficiency (return on invested resources) and effectiveness (reaching predetermined goals). However, quite frequently, the decision maker cannot simultaneously handle data from different sources. Hence, we recommend that managers analyze different aspects of data from multiple sources separately and integrate the results of the analysis. This study proposes the design of a multi-attribute-decision-support-system that combines the analytical power of two different tools: data envelopment analysis (DEA) and fuzzy logic. DEA evaluates and measures the relative efficiency of decision making units that use multiple inputs and outputs to provide non-objective measures without making any specific assumptions about data. On the other hand fuzzy logic’s main strength lies in handling imprecise data. This study proposes a modeling technique that jointly uses the two techniques to benefit from the two methodologies. A major advantage of the DEA approach is that it clearly identifies the important factors contributing to the success of a decision. In addition, I also propose the use of a neuro-fuzzy model to create a rule-based system that can aid the decision-maker in making decisions regarding the implications of a decision. One of the important characteristics of neuro-fuzzy systems is their ability to deal with imprecise and uncertain information. The neuro-fuzzy model integrates the performance values of a set of production units derived by ranking using DEA to create IF-THEN rules to handle fluctuating and uncertain scenarios. Thus, a decision maker can easily analyze and understand any decision made by the neuro-fuzzy model in the form of the easily interpretable IF-THEN rules.
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